2019/3/21凌晨 2:00美国美联储公布利率决议,五大重点:

1) 维持利率2.25%~2.50%不变
2) 点阵图透露今年不再升息
3) 再度下调今年经济、通胀,上调失业率预期
4) 确定缩表将采渐进方式于9月结束,机构债将于10月后再投资于美债
5) 记者会强调保持耐心,但美国经济稳健看法

整体鸽派态度大幅超出市场预期,M平方整理重点如下:


一、美联储维持利率不变,但点阵图下调至今年不会升息!


本次美联储官员全数赞成维持联邦基准利率不变。而M平方最为关注的今年升息路径则调整至不会升息!由利率点阵图可以看出, 2019年的目标利率中位数下调至2.325%(原2.875%),较12月份下调两码,下调人数高达9人! 明后两年则分别维持升息一码、暂停升息,同时长期利率维持2.875%,结束近年来罕见的倒挂现象。整体而言,美联储再度放缓紧缩路径且长期利率首度超过短期,显示其认为利率已达中性区间水准,利率对于就业与产出将不再有刺激及压抑作用,未来调整利率与否,将视经济、通胀状况而定。


利率会议后,FedWatch显示2019全年不升息概率自会前75.5%,小幅减速至63.4%,而降息1次概率自2成附近,上升至3成,鸽派声浪大作。



二、声明稿文字较先前保守


2019年3月份重点

经济活动与就业市场:
声明稿对就业市场叙述自进一步转强改为维持强劲,并补充叙述2月非农新增就业虽变化不大,但最近几个月平均增长仍稳健(Strong->Solid),而失业率也维持低档。另外,经济活动部分,强调自去年Q4以来的稳健增长放缓(Solid->Slow)。

家庭支出与企业投资:
声明稿指出近期数据显示家庭支出及企业投资在第一季有所放缓。 (原文:Recent indicators point to slower growth of household spending and business fixed investment in the first quarter. )

通胀持续减速:
声明稿叙述整体通胀减速,而能源价格依旧是通胀减速主要原因,并强调基于市场的通胀补偿近几个月一直处于低位。



三、再度同步下调今年经济、通胀预测,并上调失业率


近3个年度(2019~2021)
下调今明两年GDP增速率:2.1%(原2.3%)、1.9%(原1.8%)、1.8%。
上调失业率:3.7%(原3.5%)、3.8%(原3.6%)、3.9%(原3.8%)。
下调PCE :1.8%(原1.9%)、2%(原2.1%)、2.0%(原2.1%)。
维持核心PCE不变 :2.0%、2.0%、2.0%。



四、缩表以渐进方式于9月结束,并宣布10月后机构债到期将再投资于美债!


美联储2017年10月启动的资产负债表正常化计划,采行被动缩表方式,针对两大资产:美国国债及不动产抵押证券(MBS),每个月逐步减少到期本金再投资。计划从最初的2017Q4每月回收100亿、2018Q1 200亿,Q2 300亿等逐季增加100亿,以目前最多500亿的方式渐进赎回美联储持有美债及MBS(美债300亿/MBS 200亿)。至今年Q1预估实际回收金额将达约5345亿。截至最新3/13数值,美联储资产端已减少4889亿至3.97万亿,而负债端,尤其是银行超额准备金已减少6087亿至1.52万亿。


美联储缩表不断地收回流动性,一直是市场最为担忧的关注重点,本次会议终于发布声明稿,确定其时间框架以及后续细节,M平方为投资人整理如下:

1) 自5月起降低美债到期赎回的再投资上限至150亿(原:300亿)
(原文:To ensure a smooth transition to the longer-run level of reserves consistent with efficient and effective policy implementation……The Committee intends to slow the reduction of its holdings of Treasury securities by reducing the cap on monthly redemptions from the current level of $30 billion to $15 billion beginning in May 2019.)

2) 确定今年9月底结束缩表计划
(原文:The Committee intends to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) at the end of September 2019.)

3) 长期持有美债组成,继续实施机构债与MBS的到期赎回
(原文:The Committee intends to continue to allow its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to decline, consistent with the aim of holding primarily Treasury securities in the longer run......any principal payments in excess of that maximum will continue to be reinvested in agency MBS.)

4) 自10月开始,机构债与MBS到期将再投资于美债(限于200亿/月以内,购买美债期限与流通在外到期一致)
(原文:Beginning in October 2019, principal payments received from agency debt and agency MBS will be reinvested in Treasury securities subject to a maximum amount of $20 billion per month...... Principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS below the $20 billion maximum will initially be invested in Treasury securities across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.)

5) 缩表结束后,银行准备金将略高于有效实施货币政策水准
(原文:The average level of reserves after the FOMC has concluded the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings at the end of September will likely still be somewhat above the level of reserves necessary to efficiently and effectively implement monetary policy.)

6) 承诺维持总资产规模不变,让流通货币自然增长及准备金逐步降至有效水平
(原文:In that case, the Committee currently anticipates that it will likely hold the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time. During such a period, persistent gradual increases in currency and other non-reserve liabilities would be accompanied by corresponding gradual declines in reserve balances to a level consistent with efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy.)

7) 承诺达到货币政策有效水平时,美联储将开始购买资产,弥补非储备负债端的增长,并保持适当的储备水准
(原文:When the Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to this level, the SOMA portfolio will hold no more securities than necessary for efficient and effective policy implementation. Once that point is reached, the Committee will begin increasing its securities holdings to keep pace with trend growth of the Federal Reserve's non-reserve liabilities and maintain an appropriate level of reserves in the system.)


五、记者会重点摘要:强调目前美国经济稳健,提及海外趋缓


1) 强调未见到数据支持美联储改变保持耐心立场,12月消费数据疲弱、通胀依旧温和为暂缓调整利率主因。
(原文:We don’t see data coming in that suggest that we should move in either direction. They suggest that we should remain patient and let the situation clarify itself over time.)


(原文:I don’t feel that we have kind of convincingly achieved our 2 percent mandate in a symmetrical way……That gives us the ability to be patient, and not move until we see that our target goals are being achieved.)

2) 虽然2018年美国经济没有放缓迹象,但海外经济趋缓,尤其中国、欧洲,而今年以来美国数据好坏参半。
(原文:growth has slowed in some foreign economies noddle notably in Europe and China……while the US economy showed little evidence of slowdowns, through the end of 2018……the limited data we have so far this year have been somewhat more mixed.)

3) 预计美联储总资产负债表规模将为GDP的 17% (约3.5万亿~3.7万亿)
(原文:the balance sheet will be of a size of approximately 17% of GDP around the end of this year down from 25 percent of GDP in at the end of 2014.)


【M评论】

本次美联储会议放出完全鸽派的言论,M平方整理重点与看法如下表:


(内含关键表格及MM研究员看法)

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