2019/1/31凌晨 3:00,美国美联储公布利率决议,三大观察重点:1) 维持利率不变 2) 声明稿完全取消前瞻指引,5大修正透露鸽派 3) 发布缩表态度声明,强调若影响市场则果断调整承诺,M平方整理重点如下:


1. 维持现有基准利率2.25% ~ 2.50%

美联储官员全数通过将联邦基准利率维持在2.25% ~ 2.50%,符合市场预期。

2. 声明稿删除前瞻性指引,透露5大鸽派讯息

2019年1月份重点

  1. 维持就业市场、家庭支出强劲及企业投资温和叙述,但对于经济活动叙述自12月强劲(Strong)调整至稳健(Solid)
    (原文 ...economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. )

  2. 通胀近期有所转弱。
    (原文 ...market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved lower in recent months.)

  3. 委员会认为经济活动的持续扩张、就业市场强劲以及对称通胀接近2%目标是最可能的结果。(12月声明肯定此叙述为中期结果medium term )。
    (原文 ...The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. )

  4. 通胀压力温和,委员认为对于进一步调整利率保持耐心是适当的。
    (原文 ...muted inflation pressures, Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.)

  5. 删除前瞻性指引字眼(some further gradual increases)


3.美联储发布对于缩表看法声明,表态若有需要则果断调整

委员会称货币政策(缩表)将持续进行,而充足的储备规模确保联邦利率水准的控制,现在并不需要积极管理储备供应。
(原文:The Committee intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates, and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required. )

强调利率调整仍为货币政策主要手段,而委员会已有准备根据经济及金融状况调整缩表的细节,若未来经济环境有需要比降息更为宽松的政策,委员会将使用全部的工具,包括调整资产负债表规模以及组成。
(原文:The Committee continues to view changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments. Moreover, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate. )

4. Powell会后记者会重点摘要

调整利率态度:
全球前景出现放缓,尤其中国及欧洲,同时英国脱欧及美国政府部分停摆造成不确定性风险,使金融状况在2018年底转趋紧缩。另外,通胀上升压力受油价下跌影响有所消除,预计将影响将维持数月,综合全球经济及金融状况,委员认为耐心等待进一步数据(patient wait-and-see)调整利率是适当的。而下一次利率调整将依赖数据,升息必要性则取决于美国通胀状况。

缩表:
Powell称FOMC已于过去三次会议中就缩表最后阶段进行深入讨论,虽然对于银行储备需求的估计仍然不确定,但委员们认为整体需求将远大于危机之前,更高的储备是现在金融机构拥有更强流动性的重要因素。此外根据调查目前储备需求估计远高于一年前,这代表缩表将更快完成,而资产负债表的规模将大于先前的估计。最后强调在经济环境需要情况下,美联储将使用联邦基金利率以及全部的工具,包括资产负债表工具。


5.【M平方评论】

本次美联储如预期维持利率在2.25%~2.50%,声明稿中5大修正显鸽派,而我们认为本波市场喘息来自1月发生的2件事:1) 美联储转为鸽派 2) 非农强劲稳固信心。于此,我们认为只要上述两者仍能维持(缺一不可),本波景气循环扩张延长契机就能持续发酵,M平方分析如下:

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